Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • Climate
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 2 min

Stabilization of the Economic Activity in China

  • 22 August 2013
  • Philippe Waechter
  • China
  • PMI Surveys
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

The two charts below give a synthetic view of what’s going on in the Chinese economy at summer end. We know that the growth momentum is slower than it used to be. Currently the growth rate is below 8% and the question is to know if it will slow again or not.
This survey gives some short-term answers.
In the first chart we see that the economic activity was stabilized in August. The synthetic index was at 50.1 after 3 months below this threshold (below 50 the economic activity is in contraction and above 50 in improvement). At 50.1 the level of activity is comparable to July’s level. There is no supplementary break that could create uncertainties for the rest of the year.
On the second chart we see that this improvement does not come from an external impulse. The New Export Orders index is still well below the 50 threshold. Then the positive perception of the survey comes from a stronger internal momentum. We can see that on New Orders to Inventories ratio. It is well above 1 meaning that after an adjustment on inventories of finished goods higher orders will translate in higher production. In the short run that’s positive and the risk of a new break on economic activity is limited.
This more positive environment can come from recent incentives on investments that have changed the picture for companies.
Another interesting point is that companies have bought commodities and this probably reflects stronger expectations of the environment for the months to come.
The last point to mention is that this stabilization is consistent with a GDP growth rate marginally above to 7.5%. This is good news for all the Asian countries that are still dependent on Chinese impetus.

Chhina-2013-august-pmi-flash
China-2013-august-pmi-orders

Related Topics
  • China
  • PMI Surveys
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox


Loading
ABOUT PHILIPPE WAECHTER

Le magazine d’experts d’Ostrum

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
  • Cookie Policy (EU)
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2023
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.

Manage Cookie Consent
We use cookies to optimize our website and our service.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Manage options Manage services Manage vendors Read more about these purposes
View preferences
{title} {title} {title}