The IMF is skeptical about the French ability to control their public finances. According to April projections, the public deficit would remain close to 6% of GDP until 2030. This contrasts sharply with the French government’s multi-year projection. According to the Ministry of Finance, the deficit falls below the 3% threshold in 2029, the projection horizon, while the IMF estimates it to be 6%.

The dilemma is already in these figures, particularly those from the Ministry of Finance. Historically, in multi-year projections, the final point is close to equilibrium. It is assumed that the economy is on a balanced trajectory and that all budgetary parameters are aligned with it. Left to its own devices, the economy should return to equilibrium in the medium term. If this is not the case, this reflects rigidities indicating the economy’s inability to adapt to its environment. A 3% target over the long term validates this inability.

The idea of ​​a referendum on public finances presented by the Prime Minister is interesting if we want everyone to become aware of the constraints that mark the eventual return to balance. And more generally, it would shed light on the allocation of spending and its financing. Understanding why other countries do better or as well with fewer resources would be key. For this, the referendum would have incomparable virtues.

Yet it has many drawbacks.
The system is now sufficiently complex and abstruse that individual interest takes precedence over collective interest. Faced with a form of opacity, the effort to understand the issues at the macroeconomic level would be such that each person would only respond to the referendum according to their own interests, not to resolve past and future imbalances in public finances.
The idea of ​​a referendum is all the more complex because it has long haunted economic policy choices. Such an option would therefore reflect the inability of successive governments to take the necessary measures to move toward a sustainable path. The question is difficult, but it is also why men and women are elected.

The budgetary equation is all the more complex as Europe is at a turning point. The spending hierarchy must be rethought. The military, research, and innovation must be strengthened to assert Europe’s autonomy. France will not escape this challenge. It will be necessary to arbitrate between spending and revenue. Asking the French to do so can be seen as a form of lack of courage and an inability to define a coherent, long-term policy.

Moreover, the timing is clumsy. The abrupt changes taking place internationally are not being cushioned by a clear and deliberate internal strategy. Vagueness adds to the uncertainty, reducing the ability to choose.