The downturn trend in oil price will not reverse
The question on oil is simple: demand has dropped by 30 million barrels / day & inventories are overflowing. If production is cut by 10 million it will not reverse…
Philippe Waechter's blog
Historical decline in French GDP
French GDP would have declined by 6% in the first quarter according to the Banque de France. It is the first estimate of the 1st quarter of 2020 in developed…
Covid-19 in the US
In the United States, the number of Covid-19 infected is increasing at an exponential rate. It almost doubled in 4 days, going from 65,778 on March 25 to 121,478 the…
The French economy hit hard by the epidemic
The French economy is operating at 65% of its capacities at the end of March. INSEE shows the importance of a containment of limited duration INSEE published the note we…
Covid19 epidemic and the challenge of economic policy
The current epidemic crisis is the result of a massive health crisis that would have disastrous consequences without state intervention, and governments’ role here is to curb the extent of…
Surveys for the month of March – Major elements of the week
Week dominated by the publication of business surveys: Markit (advanced estimate), IFO, INSEE, Istat but also among households (Europe, France, Italy, USA). First measures of the epidemic shock in developed…
The global coming recession (What to expect this week)
The supply value chain is broken as a consequence of the Chinese containment. The recovery is slow and the epidemic is not over. Therefore, the global production will decrease. That’s…
Economic surveys (Markit, ISM), Capital goods orders in Germany, US employment, Chinese external trade Coming this week (March 2 – March 8) The impact of the coronavirus, US Interest rates – Central banks’ credibility at risk (What to keep in mind from last week)
Markit, ISM, US Employment Report, German Industrial Orders, Chinese External Trade but also US 10 year rate at its lowest and central banks’ credibility Highlights Markit Surveys in the manufacturing…