Paul Volcker, a victim of his own success
Paul Volcker blazed a trail as he waged the war on inflation, and shaped the financial landscape over the past 40 years. His passing at the age of 92 signals…
Philippe Waechter's blog
What to expect this week ? December 9 to 15, 2019
UK general elections, Christine Lagarde first monetary policy meeting, the Fed pauses, ECB and Fed’s forecasts, German external trade, Chinese CPI Highlights The main point will be the UK general…
What to expect this week: October 28 to November 3, 2019
Highlights The Fed’s meeting with a press conference and a press release on Wednesday. Two questions: are disagreements between FOMC members remain as high as in September ? Will the…
What to expect next week? September 23 to 29, 2019
Highlights Corporate surveys will highlight the business cycle foreseeable future. The IFO will be released on Tuesday 24 as will be the French Climat des Affaires. The French momentum is…
What to expect next week ? (July 8 – July 14, 2019)
Highlights External trade for Germany is the statistics I will focus on this week (July 8). Since the beginning of the year, real exports are slowing down as a consequence…
What to expect next week ?
Highlights Chinese trade figures, industrial production and retail sales for May are key to see how China cushions the negative international trade shock. Weak number would imply new measures to…
The oil price huge drop
The oil price dropped dramatically in recent days. The reversal on expectations is the same than on interest rates. #oilprice #interestrates #recession
Low inflation rate expected in 2019, lower than core inflation
The price of oil is, on December 19, 20% below its 2018 average. The contribution of energy to the inflation rate will quickly be negative. Inflation will fall below 1%…