Positive real interest rate: a new world opens
New regime change on the debt market, inflation and long-term interest rates are now on an equal footing. A little over two years ago, investors had to successively face a…
Philippe Waechter's blog
What impact the extension of the Middle East conflict could have on France?
In the event of conflict in the Middle East, the economic measure of the shock is the oil price profile. On many occasions, the outbreak of conflict results in a drop in production and a significant increase…
Inflation, Savings and the Economy
In the Eurozone, higher inflation has caused income sharing in favor of savings. Since the start of the pandemic and throughout the period of high inflation, the savings rate has been higher…
100 Years ago, German Hyperinflation
This morning while looking at an app on my phone, it says that in 1923, a century ago, a loaf of bread in Germany sold for 140 billion marks. This episode of hyperinflation is the…
The Wage Momentum in the Eurozone
Wage dynamics are changing within the Eurozone. In September, the increase in the salary rate, as measured by the job search site Indeed, was only 3.6% compared to 5.1% at the…
Employment – key to the European cycle momentum
The pace of economic activity in the euro area will depend on the profile of the labor market.Three starting points:1 – Surveys suggest that businesses and households are rather pessimistic. The results are everywhere below…
Inflation slows sharply in the euro area in September
The inflation rate in the euro area stood at 4.3% in September compared to 5.3% in August. This is the lowest figure since October 2021. The underlying inflation rate was 4.55% compared to 5.3%…
The $100 oil price?
The price of oil, at 92 dollars yesterday, is increasing and could quickly approach 100 dollars per barrel which is the average price observed over the whole of 2022. What is the dynamic behind…