Europe must choose its philosophy
The European Commission will have to choose between the Franco / German plan and the proposal of “frugal four”. The choice will shape the trajectory of Europe for the years…
Philippe Waechter's blog
The downturn trend in oil price will not reverse
The question on oil is simple: demand has dropped by 30 million barrels / day & inventories are overflowing. If production is cut by 10 million it will not reverse…
Limited rebound in the Chinese activity
The activity does not contract any more in March but the rebound appears limited and without ripple effect. Chinese activity indices rebounded in March. The manufacturing sector index went from…
Governments Want Recession
The recession is desired by governments to reduce the pandemic. It has never been done before and that is why the crisis is not ordinary The current crisis has two…
Covid19 epidemic and the challenge of economic policy
The current epidemic crisis is the result of a massive health crisis that would have disastrous consequences without state intervention, and governments’ role here is to curb the extent of…
Surveys for the month of March – Major elements of the week
Week dominated by the publication of business surveys: Markit (advanced estimate), IFO, INSEE, Istat but also among households (Europe, France, Italy, USA). First measures of the epidemic shock in developed…
Chinese growth has disappeared
The collapse of industrial production foreshadows what the future figures could be in the Euro zone. The collapse of Chinese industrial production is spectacular. The figures were expected to decline…
The global coming recession (What to expect this week)
The supply value chain is broken as a consequence of the Chinese containment. The recovery is slow and the epidemic is not over. Therefore, the global production will decrease. That’s…