US stimulus, rising rates, the dollar and the euro area
With US yields rising, the rest of the world follows in their wake.This surge is driven by two factors: 1 – the swift upturn in oil prices, which translate expectations of…
Philippe Waechter's blog
The downturn trend in oil price will not reverse
The question on oil is simple: demand has dropped by 30 million barrels / day & inventories are overflowing. If production is cut by 10 million it will not reverse…
The global coming recession (What to expect this week)
The supply value chain is broken as a consequence of the Chinese containment. The recovery is slow and the epidemic is not over. Therefore, the global production will decrease. That’s…
Risk of global recession increases after Baghdad
Political tensions in the Middle East could translate into a permanently higher oil price, penalizing households’ purchasing power and weakening consumption, a major support for the global economy The year…
The oil price jumped after the attack
After the attacks on oil installations in Saudi Arabia, the price, on Monday, climbed 13% over last Friday. This is an important jump, witnessing the Saudi’s decline in production by…
The oil price huge drop
The oil price dropped dramatically in recent days. The reversal on expectations is the same than on interest rates. #oilprice #interestrates #recession
Low inflation rate expected in 2019, lower than core inflation
The price of oil is, on December 19, 20% below its 2018 average. The contribution of energy to the inflation rate will quickly be negative. Inflation will fall below 1%…
The ECB will be unable to normalize its monetary policy soon
The ECB will not start the normalization of its monetary policy in 2019. The interest rate level will remain stable, my bet is that the refi rate and the deposit…