US stimulus, rising rates, the dollar and the euro area
With US yields rising, the rest of the world follows in their wake.This surge is driven by two factors: 1 – the swift upturn in oil prices, which translate expectations of…
Philippe Waechter's blog
From Today to Tomorrow – November 16 – Risks on the recovery in the euro zone
The resumption of growth in the euro zone, beyond the second lockdown, will be more dependent than in the past on the dynamics of its internal demand. The world is…
From Yesterday to Today – October 30 – Spectacular rebound in growth while awaiting containment
The GDP in France and in the Eurozone countries has clearly improved over the three Summer months. Nevertheless, the level of activity remains a little below 4% of the 2019…
From Yesterday to Today – October 26 – In the short term, the biggest threat is deflation
The low inflation observed in the euro zone will translate into very weak wage dynamics. Demand will be weak while health constraints will weigh on activity. A situation that will…
The ECB and its forecasts
The ECB has increased the size of the specific pandemic plan. The PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) which amount was 750 billion usable until December 2020 is increased to 1350…
The ECB is committed for 750 billion against the epidemic.
The ECB puts itself in front of the States which will sharply increase their public deficit in order to fight the epidemic. The program will thus reduce financial fragmentation and…
The ECB will not follow the Federal Reserve
Will the ECB follow the Federal Reserve. Will it slash its main interest rates ? The answer is a clear no. The US 10 year interest rate dropped dramatically in…
Investment funding falters in the eurozone
The ECB survey on the supply and demand of credit from banks suggests that credit conditions change little vis-à-vis businesses and appear marginally less accommodating towards households; especially on real…