The health risk reappears in the USA – A new lockdown is looming.
The acceleration in the number of Covid-19 patients in the USA is worrying. It diverges from the observation made in Europe and should cause a further upward adjustment of American…
Philippe Waechter's blog
The ECB and its forecasts
The ECB has increased the size of the specific pandemic plan. The PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) which amount was 750 billion usable until December 2020 is increased to 1350…
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What trajectory for the French economy?
The French government expects activity to contract by -11% in 2020. This assumes rapid convergence of the economy towards 100% of its pre-crisis capacities. In this case, the crisis would…
How, for the USA, to find a balanced momentum after such a shock?
The drop in activity in the United States is out of all proportion compared to the recessions of the past. A return to normal, to the dynamics before the health…
Europe must choose its philosophy
The European Commission will have to choose between the Franco / German plan and the proposal of “frugal four”. The choice will shape the trajectory of Europe for the years…
Strongest decline in US activity since the 4th quarter 2008.
March was devastating for the US economy with a 6.7% drop in consumer spending. The measure of the decline in activity will increase in the second quarter. The breaks noted…
The downturn trend in oil price will not reverse
The question on oil is simple: demand has dropped by 30 million barrels / day & inventories are overflowing. If production is cut by 10 million it will not reverse…
Historical decline in French GDP
French GDP would have declined by 6% in the first quarter according to the Banque de France. It is the first estimate of the 1st quarter of 2020 in developed…
8 hours ago
RT @Brad_Setser: There are a lot of ways of looking at the June goods trade data -- but I personally think that looking at the full quarter…
9 hours ago
La série de vidéos est intéressante. C'est un aperçu de ce que fait l'@Insee avec différentes contributions. C'est une mosaïque de fonctions, d'objectifs, de méthodes qui est présenté.