France at a crossroads: Austerity chosen or austerity imposed
The 10-year interest rate spread between France and Germany now exceeds 140 basis points, and the French rate is approaching 5%. France is acting alone: it is entering a crisis…
Philippe Waechter's blog
The World According to Trump – Part 2 –On the impossibility of killing two birds with one stone
The prerequisiteIndicators of distrust in Donald Trump’s economic policy are multiplying.According to the University of Michigan survey, American consumers are very worried. In April, they expect inflation to rise sharply…
Positive real interest rate: a new world opens
New regime change on the debt market, inflation and long-term interest rates are now on an equal footing. A little over two years ago, investors had to successively face a…
The Macro 2 pagers – Low interest rates for a long time
The Macro 2 pager explains how the interest rates profile will remain low for an extended time. The central banks’ stimulus after the 2008 crisis has been caught up by an…
Italy – The crisis is coming
The adjustment on the upside is not over on Italian rates. The 10 year bond’s rate is converging to 3%. The spread with the German 10-year rate is now circa…
Higher bonds rates in China – Should we care?
Written with Zouhoure Bousbih This week, the Chinese bond market has again been under selling pressure. The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds once again flirted with the 4%, the…
Economic Outlook – September 2016
The Economic Outlook issue for September 2016 is now available Economic-Outlook-September-2016