Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 1 min

Italy – The crisis is coming

  • 29 May 2018
  • Philippe Waechter
  • inflation rate
  • Interest Rate
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

The adjustment on the upside is not over on Italian rates. The 10 year bond’s rate is converging to 3%. The spread with the German 10-year rate is now circa 270 bp. This also reflects a safe heaven effect for German bonds.
With a rate at 3% % while the inflation is at 0.5% (in April), the real rate is way too high in Italy compared to real growth prospects. But such a level on the real rate (2.5%) would be just above the average seen since the beginning of the Euro Area (2.2%). It’s too high when the GDP trend is close to 1%. This has deterred investment and it will continue limiting the capacity to grow. We have to expect a slowdown in the economic activity in coming months. It will come from the real rate level but also from the uncertainty in the Italian economy. An austerity program that can be expected from a transition government is not good news for Italy but also for the rest of the Eurozone.
spreaditall29051000.png

Related Topics
  • inflation rate
  • Interest Rate
On the same topic
  • 1 min

On the GAFA tax and the hostile reaction of the Americans

  • 11 July 2019
  • World Economy

Philippe Waechter

The reaction of other European countries in this new context of US reaction will be interesting. The new global and multi-polar equilibrium, that is emerging, forces Europeans to be more…
  • European Union
  • GAFA
  • USA
READ
  • 1 min

Inequality

  • 27 June 2019
  • International

Philippe Waechter

Issues on inequality are more and more discussed. These questions were not mentioned when I was a student in the 80’s. They à re now part of the economic discussion…
  • Angus Deaton
  • Inequality
  • Institute for Fiscal Studies
READ
  • 1 min

Business investment profile is still worrisome

  • 7 May 2019
  • World Economy

Philippe Waechter

The pace of capital goods orders in Germany in March suggests a further slowdown in investment in OECD countries over the coming months. Orders are down 5.9% year-on-year and this…
  • France
  • Germany
  • Investment
  • OECD
READ
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox

Loading
ABOUT PHILIPPE WAECHTER

Ostrum's expert magazine

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2019
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.