A robust French Economy despite the strike
The Markit survey for France does not suggest in December an inflection that can be linked to the social movement. The economy’s capacity to adapt is stronger than we imagine…
Philippe Waechter's blog
What to expect this week? November 18 to 24, 2019
HighlightsMinutes of the last Fed’s meeting (Nov. 20) and of the last ECB’s meeting (Nov.21)The Fed’s minutes will reveal the discussions on the drop of the Fed’s benchmark rate but…
The US monetary policy and the economic’s momentum
The CFNAI index (Fed Chicago) indicates in September that the Fed’s decision to ease monetary policy is not linked to a risk of recession. An index close to -0.7 generally…
The global manufacturing sector is strongly constrained
Reduction in new export orders is the most important economic phenomenon for the business cycle in recent months. It cannot be ruled out that measures to constrain international trade have…
What to expect this week: Sept. 30 to October 6, 2019
The most important data of the week will be the US ISM survey for the manufacturing sector (October 1). It was at 49.1 in August down below the 50 threshold…
Recession risks in the Euro Area, not yet in the US
Markit surveys for September show a slow momentum in the Euro area and in the US.The synthetic index for the Euro Area (weighted average of the manufacturing and non manufacturing…
What to expect next week? September 23 to 29, 2019
Highlights Corporate surveys will highlight the business cycle foreseeable future. The IFO will be released on Tuesday 24 as will be the French Climat des Affaires. The French momentum is…
Some thoughts on US monetary policy*
The US central bank – the Federal Reserve – has trimmed its key interest rate again, marking a further step forward down a new track. Its monetary policy is now…