What if the global economy is doing better than we imagine?
Global trade is growing rapidly. In volume terms, it increased by 5.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. This is better than the previous year’s 3.9% increase and better than the…
Philippe Waechter's blog
The fragmentation of the world
In the week following the start of the conflict in Iran, economic issues resurfaced. Energy prices rose sharply, reminiscent of the surge seen during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The risk…
Understanding the importance of international trade
Donald Trump’s announcement regarding tariffs came as a bombshell. The United States’ trade deficit must be reduced at all costs. There are four dimensions to analyzing a country’s foreign trade.…
Germany is struggling
The German economy will be in recession this year. The GDP figures go in this direction and the cyclical indicators do not give any signals contrary to it. Yet Germany was on…
World trade at risk
The freight price dropped dramatically in recent weeks. It’s a consequence of the epidemic but may have huge impacts on the global economy
What to expect next week ? (July 8 – July 14, 2019)
Highlights External trade for Germany is the statistics I will focus on this week (July 8). Since the beginning of the year, real exports are slowing down as a consequence…
Global trade is still shrinking in May
Comments on May #Markit Surveys are minimizing the impact of the trade war. But May’s new feature is that US new export orders are turning negative.They are all down &…
Weaker productivity gains and shock on world trade My weekly column
The tricky economic outlook in developed markets is the result of a shock on economic activity due to a sharp slowdown in world trade, combined with insufficient productivity growth to…