The German saving rate doesn’t depend on the ECB interest rates
There is a lot of talks about the German savings rate, which is supposed to have increased recently in response to the drop in interest rates, notably the ECB rates.…
Philippe Waechter's blog
The German recession is here
The risk of recession is increasing in #Germany. The figures for industrial production (-7.5% in Q2 at annual rate (see here)) set the context for the GDP figure to be…
Recession in Germany
German production fell -1.8% in June over one month (excluding construction). It has fallen in 5 of the last 6 quarters and in Q2 the decline is -7.5% annualized rate.…
The ECB weak capacity to forecast
A few months ago the ECB suggested a rate hike in the fall of 2019. It will finally be a rate cut in September. What is the forecast capacity of…
ECB will reduce its rates as expected
The ECB will cut interest rates in September with probably a differentiated deposit rate regime depending on the amount of deposits. It is considering the resumption of asset purchases. The…
A more accommodative ECB, ok but for what ?
Mario Draghi will most likely announce, for September, measures for a more accommodating monetary policy. A possible rate cut and the resumption of QE would lead to an increase in…
Is it just a cold for Germany ?
And what about #Germany ? Is it a cold or is it more than that ? At least a cold but with the White House thinking that the world is…
ECB: How to burn ammunition for nothing
In Sintra, at the ECB seminar, Mario Draghi stressed the risk on growth and the difficulties of converging to the inflation target (close but below 2%). If additional risks materialize…