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Philippe Waechter's blog

DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, OSTRUM AM

A dynamic and cyclical approach to the global economy

  • 963 views

The German saving rate doesn’t depend on the ECB interest rates

  • 18 October 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

There is a lot of talks about the German savings rate, which is supposed to have increased recently in response to the drop in interest rates, notably the ECB rates.…

READ
  • Germany
  • Saving Rate
  • 398 views

The German recession is here

  • 13 August 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

The risk of recession is increasing in #Germany. The figures for industrial production (-7.5% in Q2 at annual rate (see here)) set the context for the GDP figure to be…

READ
  • Germany
  • Récession
  • ZEW
  • 429 views

Recession in Germany

  • 7 August 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

German production fell -1.8% in June over one month (excluding construction). It has fallen in 5 of the last 6 quarters and in Q2 the decline is -7.5% annualized rate.…

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  • Germany
  • Growth
  • Industrial Production
  • Récession
  • 272 views

The ECB weak capacity to forecast

  • 25 July 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

A few months ago the ECB suggested a rate hike in the fall of 2019. It will finally be a rate cut in September. What is the forecast capacity of…

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  • ECB
  • Interest Rates
  • Monetary Policy
  • 406 views

ECB will reduce its rates as expected

  • 25 July 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

The ECB will cut interest rates in September with probably a differentiated deposit rate regime depending on the amount of deposits. It is considering the resumption of asset purchases. The…

READ
  • ECB
  • Monetary Policy
  • 549 views

A more accommodative ECB, ok but for what ?

  • 25 July 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

Mario Draghi will most likely announce, for September, measures for a more accommodating monetary policy. A possible rate cut and the resumption of QE would lead to an increase in…

READ
  • ECB
  • Monetary Policy
  • 286 views

Is it just a cold for Germany ?

  • 24 June 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

And what about #Germany ? Is it a cold or is it more than that ? At least a cold but with the White House thinking that the world is…

READ
  • Business Cycle
  • Germany
  • IFO
  • ZEW
  • 250 views

ECB: How to burn ammunition for nothing

  • 19 June 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

In Sintra, at the ECB seminar, Mario Draghi stressed the risk on growth and the difficulties of converging to the inflation target (close but below 2%). If additional risks materialize…

READ
  • Business Cycle
  • Monetary Policy
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