Climate change must return to the forefront following the publication of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The institution points out that 2024 was the hottest year on record, with an average temperature 1.6°C above the pre-industrial average. This temperature will fluctuate between 1.2 and 1.9°C until 2029. The upward trend observed since the early 1980s continues unabated.
The WMO estimates that the probability of exceeding the 2024 temperature in at least one year is 80%. The probability of exceeding 1.5C on average over 5 years is 70%. This probability was 47% a year ago and 32% two years ago.
The climate shift observed for many years is not slowing down. The world is not emerging from the strengthening of the greenhouse effect conditioned by the use of fossil fuels. Fossil fuel consumption remains high. It fuels CO2 emissions, reinforces the greenhouse effect, and causes global warming. CO2 emissions will have increased again in 2024, as will the CO2 concentration, reaching 422.5 ppm. The energy transition is not really progressing. Renewable energies are still progressing, but they complement, not replace, fossil fuels.
As the WMO indicates, this situation will result in an increase in climatic events and major effects on polar glaciation, on significantly increased precipitation in South Asia and wetter conditions in Northern Europe. There is no doubt that these significant changes will result in a deterioration of agricultural production conditions.
In scientific research, the threshold of 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average is the one at which we begin to see irreversible effects. We’re going into it honking our horns.
Yet the United States is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, destroying climate databases, and reducing the ability of institutions to continue their research on this topic. Choices favoring fossil fuels will keep oil prices low and boost consumption.
This choice of production at all costs to the detriment of the climate, the driving force of the new US administration, is spreading to Europe. We must find ways to remain competitive, and Europe is making choices that are similar to those of the USA. The European Commission is in the process of lowering the requirements to meet the 2040 target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 (FT, May 22).
France and Germany also agreed to defuse the duty of care requirement, the so-called CS3D, which promotes sustainable and responsible behavior by companies in global value chains. (POLITICO May 20)
Europe is shifting towards production at all costs, and too bad for the climate. Part of the Draghi report has been forgotten.