The balance of the world is changing in both its economic and political dimensions. In the past, these ruptures were either economic or political, but rarely did they have this dual quality.

The standoff with the USSR was political and the Japanese pressure was exclusively economic. 

With China and the USA, the economic balance of power is intense and the political confrontation is extremely violent.

The world is now structured around the relationship between the two countries. 

For a long time, there was a form of complementarity. The United States provided the technology and China the cheap labor. The products arriving from China were cheap, and the Chinese market was insufficient to absorb the income from transactions between the two countries. Chinese savings were then invested in American assets. The gain was shared in different ways. 

This situation has changed with the rise of Chinese technology and the perception, particularly among Republicans, that the impact on employment of such a configuration was negative for the American employee.

Tensions began after 2015, peaking when Donald Trump, the new president, ostracized Huawei from the American economy. For Huawei, the move was immediately detrimental, cutting it off from its technological resources. A few years later, the Chinese firm was completely rebuilt and once again very powerful, independent of American support.

I raise this issue because, once again, technology has been at the heart of relations between the two countries and the nature of the difference shows that the rupture is major. 

A few weeks ago, the White House wanted to authorize the sale of semiconductors produced by Nvidia to China. However, the Middle Kingdom does not want to use these semiconductors so as not to become dependent on American goodwill. 

China is becoming independent and wants to be able to develop its own technological standard. However, if the market is global, there is only one standard. This is the issue at stake in these tensions between the two countries. 

The other interesting point is China and Russia’s support for Iran. While in 2015, the Chinese, Russians, and Americans approved sanctions against Iran, this is no longer the case. This point is all the more important given that Iran’s potential nuclear arsenal has not been destroyed by the American strikes. It would be possible to manufacture around ten small nuclear warheads. China and the United States are no longer allies, and a form of bloc is emerging around the Global South, led by China. 

The two great powers will no longer have such intertwined trajectories as in the past. This will not be without consequences for the balance of the world and its regulation. 

To be continued on Wednesday, September 3