An earthquake affecting American employment. The saga continues unabated. A few weeks ago, Donald Trump, upset by the weak job creation figures, fired the head of this publication. The figures for August, even worse, even show a decline in employment in June. The detrimental effects of the White House tenant’s policies seemed to be the cause of the slowdown in the labor market since the beginning of spring. Hence his call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to reduce the constraints weighing on the economy.
The earthquake struck early on September 9th. The notorious Bureau of Labor Statistics, the one blamed by Donald Trump, published a revised version of the employment figures for the 12 months ending March 2025. The data, robust until then, was revised by nearly a million (-911,000 to be precise). This represents an adjustment of -0.6% of the labor market. This is a lot compared to the adjustments, which over the last 10 years have been 0.2% in absolute terms.
Trump will be able to claim that the deterioration of the labor market is not linked to his policies since the labor market was already degraded when he came to power. The argument will be to indicate that his policies will result in an upward trend in job creation and that for the time being, the situation left by Joe Biden must be liquidated.
You couldn’t dream of anything better.
Yes. The American president can dream even better, since the US Supreme Court has just agreed to urgently examine the Justice Department’s appeal regarding the tariffs signed in the Oval Office. Normally, it is Congress that should decide this policy.
But Trump has decided to use it as his economic policy tool. The stakes are high because if the Supreme Court upholds the procedure, the scope of possibilities will expand even further. The American president has already asked the Europeans to impose 100% tariffs on China and India in order to put pressure on Russia, which is refusing to comply with the White House’s demands.
If the Supreme Court grants him full powers, the balance of power in America will shift. The urgency of reducing the external deficit is only relative. Is it necessary to set fire to the dynamics of global trade for an effect that will surely not be as favorable as the White House expected? The United States is also a major player in trade, and by changing the rules, there is no objective reason why American businesses and the economy should not be affected.
The Supreme Court’s decision will be announced in early November. This could mark the true beginning of Donald Trump’s term in office. If the decision is in his favor, then there will be no limits. And it won’t be limited to simple economic issues.