“We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition..”

This is Mark Carney’s key message in Davos. In a powerful speech, the Canadian Prime Minister positions himself as a leader of middle powers in a world undergoing profound upheaval.

His analysis is clear: the system of exchange promoted during the globalization of the world economy benefited everyone. But it primarily served the most powerful, who were able to position themselves, create specific advantages, and cultivate a power dynamic in their favor.

For Mark Carney, the framework has collapsed, and the powerful no longer hesitate to create pressure, tensions, and coercive measures to achieve their own, rather than collective, goals.

It doesn’t take a genius to understand the world’s dependence on American technologies and financial infrastructure, or on innovative but subsidized products from China. Hegemonic powers can’t keep up the pretense much longer—they’re already done so—and middle powers can’t live in perpetual uncertainty about what will be decided in Washington or Beijing.

For Mark Carney, thinking in terms of transition is fighting the wrong battle. It’s assuming that a return to the old model is still possible, that the shocks that astonish us every day are merely temporary. No, the rules no longer apply to everyone in the same way, whereas this was an essential dimension of the multilateralism in which we all grew up.

If the rules are no longer recognized or respected, then we must think differently in the form of strategic autonomy.

“When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.” Middle powers, as Mark Carney suggests, must create a counterweight with their own rules and their own degrees of freedom. They must exist collectively, but they can only do so if they individually gain power and autonomy.

But Carney warns that this break will come at a cost, and that “A world of fortresses will be poorer, more fragile and less sustainable.” In Europe, the challenge is to move beyond the framework of exchange at any cost, while the world of hegemons is one of hoarding. Europe must adopt a model of power dynamics to maintain its influence.

Mark Carney is known for his hard-hitting speeches. In 2015, “The Tragedy of the Horizons” highlighted the need for a collective effort to combat climate change. In 2026, the global economy must be rethought in terms of disruptions and power dynamics.

History is tragic, said Raymond Aron, indicating that it is neither deterministic nor linear. Carney understood this well; his argument is anxiety-inducing, but he calls for action from middle powers so as not to be subjected to the hegemons.

(Quotations from Mark Carney’s speech are in brackets and italics)