Until recently, Russia seemed to be an exception in the dynamics of the world economy. China, the United States and Europe mainly conditioned their behavior on economic issues. Russia was the only major country to systematically adopt the balance of power as the basis of its behavior.
With the arrival of Trump in the White House, the situation has changed and the camp in favor of the balance of power has grown sharply.
Europe, caught in a trap, is forced to react quickly. This translates into increased spending on the military. An 800 billion euro plan has been adopted by Brussels. Europe is mobilizing to face a form of unpredictability that now characterizes the world.
There are many non-exclusive questions that are asked.
Is the period we are experiencing transitory or permanent? Depending on what we anticipate, the answer is not the same. If it is a question of temporary tensions, then we must know how to show our muscles and be patient.
If the change is permanent then one may feel that the rupture that we are currently experiencing will not be associated with a stable equilibrium. This is the possibility of conflict.
The second issue is a lesser appeal for American financial assets. They represented and had for a long time been risk-free assets. They concentrated the interest of all investors because of the solidity that the United States represented both democratically and economically.
If the USA goes it alone, then alternative systems will have to be found and defined. China and Europe, but also the rest of the world, will have to define one or more other compasses to guide financial flows. The end of USAID, which provided development assistance in the most fragile regions, is a first signal of American disengagement.
The third question concerns the climate. This issue, which has moved from the top to the bottom of the pile, is by no means settled. The rising temperature, the rapidly approaching tipping points and the multiplication of climatic events are all signals that will not stop with the arrival of Trump in Washington.
Given the “Drill, baby, drill” and the lack of resources now allocated to the IPCC, this question will quickly come back to the forefront.
We will need expert technologies on this issue. They will not be American because of the US disengagement but they will be Chinese. In the Middle Kingdom, the climate issue is still taken seriously and decarbonization and renewable energy techniques are developing there.
The US technological battle to constrain China risks turning around and tipping in Beijing’s favor because the world will need to escape too high a temperature. The US will then have lost the battle.
Other questions are asked, we will come back to them.