“We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and it is our duty to pursue those interests.” These are the words of Lord Palmerston, British Foreign Secretary in 1848, that Europe should have long since incorporated into its foreign policy framework.

With the disruptions observed on a global scale, Europe finds itself helpless. It believed more than any other part of the world that trade, democracy, and institutions were sufficient ingredients for a lasting peaceful framework. This Europe of peace has probably missed moments that should have been seized to adopt a geopolitical strategy consistent with a changing environment.

Today, the unsupportive policy of the White House since the arrival of Donald Trump towards Europe creates the perception that the old continent has, for a long time, indulged in a form of euphoria, withdrawn into its own construction and ultimately paying little attention to world affairs.

According to Jo Inge Bekkevold in a recent article in Foreign Policy, Europe has failed to act vigilantly at three important moments in recent history.
The first is the failure to recognize the imperial revival of Russian power. The energy talks, particularly those on the continent, reflected the idea that deeper trade would be beneficial and lead to stability on the continent. This has prevented Russia from seeing a resurgence of power.
The second point is that China’s rise has forced the Americans to shift their military focus to the Pacific and away from Europe. This shift in policy direction took place in the early 2010s, but it has not prompted Europeans to rearm. Military budgets have increased in only four countries. This is insufficient given the already noticeable American withdrawal.
The third moment is the rapprochement between China and Russia since 2014. China has allowed Russia to not feel isolated despite the tensions in Ukraine after the invasion of Crimea.

These three recent events should have been wake-up calls for Europe, signals of its isolation from the other three powers. Now it’s time to compensate for the end of cheap access to Russian gas, take into account the shift in American interests, the Sino-Russian agreement, and recognize that the American umbrella over Europe is no longer as effective.

Thus, in a limited timeframe, Europe must adopt a strategy that could have been implemented over the past ten years. This would have been beneficial for growth and would not have led to the haste and urgency into which Europe is now immersed, with the risk of disorganization penalizing activity and employment.
The world had changed and Europe did not want to notice it.