The Shift of History – Part 4
For Kindleberger, financial dynamics are not inherently stable. It requires a leader, a hegemon, who, through their actions, guarantees it, giving it the characteristics of a global public good. All…
Philippe Waechter's blog
The Shift of History – Part 3
The current architecture of the global economy owes much to the actions of central banks. Since the early 1980s, with the progressive financialization of the global economy, they have taken…
The Shift of History – Part 2
Thucydide and Fernand Braudel allow us to understand the movements, Kindleberger is more in the analysis of the dynamics which are stalling. For Thucydide, Sparta must enter into conflict with…
Lowering tariffs between the US and China
Chinese and Americans have partially buried the war axe on tariffs. The 145% rate on Chinese products entering the US is lowered to 30% and the 125% rate for US…
The Shift of History – Part 1
World history is generally shaped by a leading country. This has been the case since World War II with the United States and earlier with Great Britain. This hegemon provides…
The US-UK trade deal is primarily political
The trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom was announced as the event. British goods entering the United States will be subject to a 10% tariff, as…
Oil prices fall
The price of oil is around $60 a barrel, a drop of just over 20% compared to the 2024 average. There are three dimensions to understanding the trend of oil…
The nagging problem of public finances in France
The IMF is skeptical about the French ability to control their public finances. According to April projections, the public deficit would remain close to 6% of GDP until 2030. This…