After the strong downward revision of the GDP estimate for the first quarter, can a rebound be expected during the second quarter?
The ISM survey can give part of the answer. The chart below compares the productivity index calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a measure of productivity taken from the ISM survey.
The two series are consistent and we see a rebound on the ISM measure during the second quarter. It is an indication that the drop seen in the first quarter was probably temporary and that the economic activity was better oriented during spring.
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