Investors seem to have perceived a possible improvement in the economic momentum in the Euro Area after the publication of the Markit survey for October. That was one reason for markets stronger dynamics. I think they are wrong. The economic situation is not improving in the Euro Area.
3 graphs to perceive this weaker momentum
In the first chart I build a synthetic index for the whole economy that is based on synthetic indices from the manufacturing and the service surveys*. The synthetic index for the whole economy is weighted average of the two sub-indices. The weight is employment in each sub-sector (I have the same profile if I use added value).
The index reflects activity (which is what is usually taken as the synthetic index), employment, backlog orders and flows of new orders.
In October, this index is still trending downward and is just above the threshold of 50 that separates improvement and contraction of the economic activity.
This suggests that a rebound or a rapid change in growth momentum cannot be expected in the short run.


The third chart shows that the ratio is below 1. This should lead to a further contraction in the manufacturing production index in the coming months.

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* The synthetic index in the service sector is a weighted average of employment (0.2), backlog orders (0.25), business activity (0.25) and new business (0.3).