Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • Climate
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 2 min

3 graphs on the weaker momentum of the Euro Area

  • 26 October 2014
  • Philippe Waechter
  • Growth
  • PMI Surveys
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

Investors seem to have perceived a possible improvement in the economic momentum in the Euro Area after the publication of the Markit survey for October. That was one reason for markets stronger dynamics. I think they are wrong. The economic situation is not improving in the Euro Area.
3 graphs to perceive this weaker momentum

In the first chart I build a synthetic index for the whole economy that is based on synthetic indices from the manufacturing and the service surveys*. The synthetic index for the whole economy is weighted average of the two sub-indices. The weight is employment in each sub-sector (I have the same profile if I use added value).
The index reflects activity (which is what is usually taken as the synthetic index), employment, backlog orders and flows of new orders.
In October, this index is still trending downward and is just above the threshold of 50 that separates improvement and contraction of the economic activity.
This suggests that a rebound or a rapid change in growth momentum cannot be expected in the short run.
EA-2014-october-pmi-GDPThe second graph shows that the marginal improvement in the manufacturing index is largely compensated by the slower dynamics seen in the service sector.

ea-2014-October-PMI-sectorsThe improvement in the manufacturing sector must be examined carefully. It reflects stronger production and employment indices. It also shows a contraction in the new orders index (for the second month in a row) and higher inventories. To perceive the dynamics behind, I like to look at the following indicator which is the ratio of new orders to inventories. This ratio is consistent with the three-month change in the manufacturing index published by Eurostat.
The third chart shows that the ratio is below 1. This should lead to a further contraction in the manufacturing production index in the coming months.
EA-2014-october-pmi-ratio-ipiThe enthusiasm seen on financial markets after the publication of this Markit survey was misplaced, alas.

________________________________________________________________
* The synthetic index in the service sector is a weighted average of employment (0.2), backlog orders (0.25), business activity (0.25) and new business (0.3).

Related Topics
  • Growth
  • PMI Surveys
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox


Loading

Le magazine d’experts d’Ostrum

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
  • Cookie Policy (EU)
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2025
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.

Manage Cookie Consent
We use cookies to optimize our website and our service.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Manage options Manage services Manage {vendor_count} vendors Read more about these purposes
View preferences
{title} {title} {title}