The United Kingdom GDP growth will slowdown dramatically during the first quarter of 2017. Retail sales were down -6.1% during the first three months of the year, in contrast with what was seen recently. This reflects the acceleration of the inflation rate and specifically the higher food prices that have reduced HH purchasing power.
As the consumption profile is consistent with retail sales we can expect a drop in HH consumption that will pull down the GDP figure.
This is the first real impact of the Brexit through lower purchasing power. But that’s just a first step
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