Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 2 min

Euro Area – Robust Dynamics in August according to Markit

  • 23 August 2017
  • Philippe Waechter
  • Eurozone
  • Growth momentum
  • Markit Survey
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

Synthetic indices on economic activity stabilized in August according to the Markit Survey that was out this morning. These figures are consistent with a 0.5/0.6% GDP growth for the third quarter (non annualized figures).
The employment momentum is still robust but doesn’t accelerate anymore. But the business cycle is still virtuous with a strong momentum in the manufacturing sector. The survey price index stabilized in August. The ECB can maintain its accommodative bias on its monetary policy. The more expansive euro has not yet influenced companies’ behavior.


The momentum of the economic activity is still strong but doesn’t accelerate anymore. That’s what the graph below shows. These indices based on the production index are close to 55 since the end of 2016.
The interesting point is the French profile with a rapid catch up since mid 2016. Long to start but able at the end to do as good as the others.
ea-2017-august-markitsynthprodeafg
A larger index based on synthetic indices for the manufacturing sector and for the services sector has a less enthusiastic profile. It’s still high an consistent with a GDP growth of 0.5/0.6% in the third quarter (non annualized figure). But the trend is clearly not on the upside. (Each sectoral synthetic index is based on production, employment, new orders..The signal is more relevant than the index based only on production)
ea-2017-august-markit-pib
This downtrend profile reflects the non manufacturing sector as it can be seen on the graph below. But the manufacturing sector is still very strong and takes advantage of the stronger trend seen on the world trade.
As the manufacturing sector is robust we can expect than the outlook will remain bright in coming month. We will have a catch up on services.
ea-2017-august-indexsectors
The survey’s employment momentum is marginally lower in August but still consistent with a strong number of jobs creation. But no more acceleration
ea-2017-august-markit employ
The New Orders index is improving and this is consistent with the strong momentum of the manufacturing sector. It means that in coming months the Industrial Production Index will improve.
ea-2017-august-markit-ratio-ipi
The survey’s price index stabilized in August. It means that the production price index will slowdown in coming months. The higher euro will weigh on the Markit index so we cannot expect a accélération in production prices.
ea-2017-august-ppi-marjitprice

Related Topics
  • Eurozone
  • Growth momentum
  • Markit Survey
On the same topic
  • 2 min

The German saving rate doesn’t depend on the ECB interest rates

  • 18 October 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

There is a lot of talks about the German savings rate, which is supposed to have increased recently in response to the drop in interest rates, notably the ECB rates.…
  • Germany
  • Saving Rate
READ
  • 1 min

The German recession is here

  • 13 August 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

The risk of recession is increasing in #Germany. The figures for industrial production (-7.5% in Q2 at annual rate (see here)) set the context for the GDP figure to be…
  • Germany
  • Récession
  • ZEW
READ
  • 1 min

Recession in Germany

  • 7 August 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

German production fell -1.8% in June over one month (excluding construction). It has fallen in 5 of the last 6 quarters and in Q2 the decline is -7.5% annualized rate.…
  • Germany
  • Growth
  • Industrial Production
  • Récession
READ
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox

Loading
ABOUT PHILIPPE WAECHTER

Ostrum's expert magazine

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2019
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.