The three charts below show the ECB forecasts for GDP growth, the inflation rate and the core inflation rate. They have been updated today with the ECB meeting.
Growth has been revised on the upside for 2017 but remains unchanged, compared to June, for 2018 and 2019. The inflation rate and the core inflation rate have been revised down. The inflation convergence will not take place before 2020.
Therefore you have to expect that the ECB interest rates will remain at the current level (0% on the refi rate) at least until 2019.
On the same topic
The German saving rate doesn’t depend on the ECB interest rates
There is a lot of talks about the German savings rate, which is supposed to have increased recently in response to the drop in interest rates, notably the ECB rates.…
The German recession is here
The risk of recession is increasing in #Germany. The figures for industrial production (-7.5% in Q2 at annual rate (see here)) set the context for the GDP figure to be…
Recession in Germany
German production fell -1.8% in June over one month (excluding construction). It has fallen in 5 of the last 6 quarters and in Q2 the decline is -7.5% annualized rate.…