Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 1 min

Italy: Growth expectations are too optimistic

  • 30 September 2018
  • Philippe Waechter
  • Budget Deficit
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Growth
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

Here is the frightening part of the Italian budget: growth figures. In an interview Giovanni Tria said that growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 were 1.6% and 1.7% respectively.
These are unbelievable expectations. Such numbers were attained only in period of global euphoria (2006) or of global recovery (2010). This will not be the case in 2019 or 2020. The Italian GDP growth trend is just 1.1%. That’s why budget numbers are at risks.
We cannot bet on a 2.4% budget deficit in 2019, 2020 and 2021. We must have lower growth figures in mind and probably higher expenditures. The situation is at risk in Italy In other words, the reduction of the public debt (reduction of the public debt to GDP ratio by 1% every year ) will not be achieved.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-30/italy-s-tria-tells-il-sole-he-never-threatened-to-resign

Related Topics
  • Budget Deficit
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Growth
On the same topic
  • 4 min

Italy, the Belt and Road program, and China – My weekly column

  • 2 April 2019
  • China

Philippe Waechter

Italy’s moves to sign a deal with China and get involved in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are highly significant as Italy is the first of the European Union’s…
  • Belt and Road Initiative
  • Trieste
READ
  • 1 min

The agreement between the European commission and the Italian government is a bluff

  • 19 December 2018
  • European Commission

Philippe Waechter

Despite the agreement between the Italian government and the European Commission, the question of the Italian public debt sustainability is not solved. The marginal move from the government (reducing its…
  • Budget Deficit
  • Public Debt
READ
  • 3 min

Three points on Italy, its budget and the European Commission

  • 25 October 2018
  • European Commission

Philippe Waechter

The European Commission has just told Italy to revise its 2019 budget plan: the deficit does not look excessive (2.4%), but the figure is deemed to be fragile as growth…
  • Budget
  • Public Debt
READ
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox

 

Loading
ABOUT PHILIPPE WAECHTER

Ostrum's expert magazine

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
  • Cookie Policy (EU)
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2021
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.