Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 1 min

The Federal Reserve tells us one hike now and two next year

  • 19 December 2018
  • Philippe Waechter
  • Federal Reserve
  • Interest Rates
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. The fed funds rate will thus evolve in the 2.25 – 2.5% corridor. This rate level is close to the corridor, 2.5-3.0%, considered by the Fed as a long-term target. This is the 4th rise this year.
The central bank does not appear worried about the pace of the economy in the coming months. Growth will slow down somewhat in 2019, but the unemployment rate will remain close to its current level, beyond full employment. Inflation will be close to 2%. It is a little weaker than at the September meeting because of the drop in the price of oil.
The Fed said it could raise its benchmark rate twice in 2019. In September, at the previous meeting, it was considering 3 rises. The pace of oil prices and its effect on the inflation rate probably explain this lessening.
Why two further hikes: the economy still operates on a trend beyond full employment. This imbalance must be offset by a monetary policy that must become a little restrictive to avoid possible imbalances, currently not very visible but that could develop in the not too distant future. The economy has changed, but not so much that it can function too long beyond full employment without having consequences that are difficult to manage in the long run. In addition, the White House policy that fuels domestic demand is resulting in a rapid rise in imports (see here). Through a somewhat restrictive monetary policy the Fed must weigh on the demand and limit the external imbalance.

Related Topics
  • Federal Reserve
  • Interest Rates
On the same topic
  • 1 min

The Fed lowers its benchmark rate but stop there

  • 30 October 2019
  • Monetary Policy

Philippe Waechter

The Fed lowers its benchmark rate to 1.5-1.75%. It says it wants to take a break. It downplayed expectations of another cut this year. The three drops this year are…
  • Federal Reserve
  • Interest Rates
  • Monetary Policy
READ
  • 4 min

Some thoughts on US monetary policy*

  • 20 September 2019
  • Monetary Policy

Philippe Waechter

The US central bank – the Federal Reserve – has trimmed its key interest rate again, marking a further step forward down a new track. Its monetary policy is now…
  • Business Cycle
  • Federal Reserve
  • Monetary Policy
READ
  • 2 min

The Federal Reserve reduces its rate as expected

  • 18 September 2019
  • Monetary Policy

Philippe Waechter

The Federal Reserve reduced its interest rate by 25 basis points. It is now moving in the 1.75 – 2.00% corridor. The median rate for 2019 remains at the current…
  • Business Cycle
  • Federal Reserve
  • Monetary Policy
READ
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox

Loading
ABOUT PHILIPPE WAECHTER

Ostrum's expert magazine

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2019
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.