Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 2 min

French growth's low momentum

  • 30 January 2019
  • Philippe Waechter
  • GDP
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

The French GDP growth was 1.1% (at annual rate) during the fourth quarter of last year. The same number than during the third quarter.
Social unrest has had no impact on the headline figure. Nevertheless, details show that the private sector domestic demand stalled (0.2%) during the last quarter after a strong 2.4% growth in the third quarter. Households’ consumption was 0 and investment contribution was at 0.2% versus 0.9% in Q3. On companies’ side, investment contribution decreased on the same scale (0.2% after 0.9%). Residential investment was down with a negative contribution (-0.1%).
The good surprise was on exports’ side with a strong increase at 9.8% vs 0.7% in the third quarter. Therefore and despite a rapid imports’growth, the external demand contribution was positive at 0.9% after 1.1% in Q3.
Inventories have had a marginal negative contribution.

For 2018, the average growth was at 1.5% after 2.3% in 2017 but the end of 2017 was the peak of the cycle and the economy is now converging to its potential.
In 2019, with 1.2% per quarter which is close to the 2018 average, growth will be at 1.1%. We have a forecast at this level. It way below the government forecast at 1.7%. We can’t expect a strong reversal in the GDP momentum that could justify such a forecast.
In 2019 consumption will be pushed up by all the measures on purchasing power that has been announced by the President Macron in December. But as long as social unrest remains companies will not boost their investment. The improvement seen on exports will not last. World trade is slowing down rapidly and France will follow this trend.
In other words, the French economy has a limited growth momentum (just 0.9% from Q4 2017 to Q4 2018). With social unrest and uncertainty on external trade, the French economy will continue this trend close to 1% in 2019.

Related Topics
  • GDP
On the same topic
  • 3 min

From Yesterday to Today – November 3 – France, its Public Deficit and the fragility of the Euro Area

  • 4 November 2020
  • France

Philippe Waechter

The IMF suggests that France should revive its economy but also should plan a strategy to rebalance its public finances as soon as activity picks up. Its fear is a…
  • Euro Area
  • Public Finance Sustainability
  • Sovereign Debt Crisis
  • Structural Deficit
READ
  • 3 min

From Yesterday to Today – October 30 – Spectacular rebound in growth while awaiting containment

  • 30 October 2020
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

The GDP in France and in the Eurozone countries has clearly improved over the three Summer months. Nevertheless, the level of activity remains a little below 4% of the 2019…
  • GDP Growth
READ
  • 3 min

From Yesterday to Today – October 29 – What impact would the November lockdown have on activity in France?

  • 29 October 2020
  • France

Philippe Waechter

With a conservative assumption on the impact of containment of -6% in the last quarter, GDP would contract -10.8% in 2020 and grow by + 3.5% in 2021. Convergence towards 2019 GDP would take place around 2026/2027
  • Covid-19 Impact on Growth
  • Lockdown in France
  • Social Dynamics
READ
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox

Loading
ABOUT PHILIPPE WAECHTER

Ostrum's expert magazine

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2019
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.