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  • 1 min

The ECB monetary policy is too tight

  • 6 June 2019
  • Philippe Waechter
  • ECB
  • Monetary Policy
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Mario Draghi said the ECB was ready to act if necessary.
But there is something I don’t understand: the ECB revised down its forecasts for growth and for inflation for this year and the 2 years to come. Growth will barely converge to 1.4% in 2021 and the inflation rate is expected to be at 1.6% for the same year(way below the ECB target).
Can it be satysfying ? No, this level of forecasts are too low.
This means that the Euro Area has not been able to cushion the external negative shock. If there is still leeway on monetary policy side this means that the current stance is too tight. Today’s forward guidance on future monetary policy measures is not sufficient to reverse the trend. Need more

Related Topics
  • ECB
  • Monetary Policy
On the same topic
  • 2 min

The German saving rate doesn’t depend on the ECB interest rates

  • 18 October 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

There is a lot of talks about the German savings rate, which is supposed to have increased recently in response to the drop in interest rates, notably the ECB rates.…
  • Germany
  • Saving Rate
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  • 1 min

The German recession is here

  • 13 August 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

The risk of recession is increasing in #Germany. The figures for industrial production (-7.5% in Q2 at annual rate (see here)) set the context for the GDP figure to be…
  • Germany
  • Récession
  • ZEW
READ
  • 1 min

Recession in Germany

  • 7 August 2019
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

German production fell -1.8% in June over one month (excluding construction). It has fallen in 5 of the last 6 quarters and in Q2 the decline is -7.5% annualized rate.…
  • Germany
  • Growth
  • Industrial Production
  • Récession
READ
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