Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • Climate
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 1 min

The Brexit is done and could lead to a rapid change

  • 3 February 2020
  • Philippe Waechter
  • Brexit
  • European Union
  • United Kingdom
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0


The main question after the launch of the Brexit, last Friday, is to know how things will change and at which speed.
In a recent post on my blog I said that political polarization was the most important point. In other words, in a heterogeneous society, economic decisions will be depend mainly on political choices. It means that the most rational choices are necessarily those to be chosen.
It also means that excess will probably be seen in the coming weeks and months. The strong political support for Brexit may lead some Brexiters to anticipate what they expect after the effective and definitive exit at the end of this year. For the moment, it’s just anecdotal as Guernsey that doesn’t allow French boats in its fishing perimeter. But it can change with the way the negotiations go.
The start of negotiations has shown that Michel Barnier for the European Commission and Boris Johnson do not share the same vision of the expected agreement.
On the one side, Michel Barnier wants the UK to respect rules to have access to the single market, rules that are rejected by Boris Johnson. It’s too early to have a judgement on this negotiation but a long lasting disagreement would allow many Brexiters to expect that the divorce could be without agreement. In that case, the real Brexit would start before the end of the year. The smooth transition will no longer exist and the hard Brexit will be the real story.

Related Topics
  • Brexit
  • European Union
  • United Kingdom
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox


Loading
ABOUT PHILIPPE WAECHTER

Le magazine d’experts d’Ostrum

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
  • Cookie Policy (EU)
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2023
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.

Manage Cookie Consent
We use cookies to optimize our website and our service.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Manage options Manage services Manage vendors Read more about these purposes
View preferences
{title} {title} {title}