The main question after the launch of the Brexit, last Friday, is to know how things will change and at which speed.
In a recent post on my blog I said that political polarization was the most important point. In other words, in a heterogeneous society, economic decisions will be depend mainly on political choices. It means that the most rational choices are necessarily those to be chosen.
It also means that excess will probably be seen in the coming weeks and months. The strong political support for Brexit may lead some Brexiters to anticipate what they expect after the effective and definitive exit at the end of this year. For the moment, it’s just anecdotal as Guernsey that doesn’t allow French boats in its fishing perimeter. But it can change with the way the negotiations go.
The start of negotiations has shown that Michel Barnier for the European Commission and Boris Johnson do not share the same vision of the expected agreement.
On the one side, Michel Barnier wants the UK to respect rules to have access to the single market, rules that are rejected by Boris Johnson. It’s too early to have a judgement on this negotiation but a long lasting disagreement would allow many Brexiters to expect that the divorce could be without agreement. In that case, the real Brexit would start before the end of the year. The smooth transition will no longer exist and the hard Brexit will be the real story.