Washington wants to force Beijing, which then retaliates. This is the new rule of the geopolitical game.
Three illustrations
1- The choice imposed by Beijing on Chinese airlines to refuse delivery of ordered Boeing planes.
2- Exports of critical metals to the United States slowed sharply in March under pressure from the Chinese government.
3- Koreans will no longer be able to export products to the USA containing critical Chinese metals.
China is in the midst of a brutal retaliation that could have a significant and lasting impact on American production processes. This is not the attitude of a country that would accept its adversary’s negotiating terms, as the White House would have us believe.
Washington wants to force a decoupling of the rest of the world from China. This is a primary objective of American policy to maintain its leadership.
For all countries, this is part of the negotiations with the White House over tariffs. Decoupling would be the best way for a country to guarantee low tariffs.
But it is not that simple for 4 reasons.
1- China is the main trading partner of many countries. In Asia, Africa, and Latin America, it is generally the largest trading partner, ahead of the United States. Why would these countries reverse their trade agreements and return to what was observed in the early 2000s?
Even Europe is questioning the right strategy to pursue. The meeting in Beijing between the EU and China next July suggests a desire for a new form of partnership.
2- China has financed a large portion of the countries with which it has trade ties. The amount of Chinese financing is far greater than that of the IMF and other institutions. This gives China a weight that the Americans no longer have. More generally, can the rest of the world engage with a country whose politics in general and economic policy in particular have become very volatile and unpredictable?
3- Before asking others to decouple from China, it would be wise for Americans to break their dependence on Chinese products. From this perspective, let’s remember that China depends less on American products to ensure its own production than the United States depends on Chinese products for theirs. There is a very significant asymmetry.
4- The balance between Asia and America has tended to be increasingly conditioned by Chinese economic and political choices. The recent rapprochement between China, Japan, and South Korea is impressive in light of past history.
The White House’s desire to isolate the Middle Kingdom may ultimately only reflect the United States’ inability to follow the path traced by China.