Everyone has been making predictions for 2026. Drawing comparisons, sketching patterns, developing logical and rational arguments… For a long time, especially after the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, it was believed that history had a defined direction. Current upheavals indicate that this is not the case.
In particular, if the current troubling uncertainty resembles that of the 1930s, it in no way signifies an identical outcome: History is written with its accelerations, its non-linearities, without knowing exactly where it is going.
Above all, no one can believe anymore that the world could return to the cooperative framework in which it evolved for decades.
Not so long ago, economics dominated decision-making, and there was a certain efficiency in leveraging the complementary strengths of different regions of the world. While the rules weren’t exactly the same from one part of the globe to another, they were consistent. This resulted in a long period of globalization that distributed wealth from China to the United States, via Asia.
Tensions over technology have disrupted relations between China and the United States. Economic choices have taken on a political dimension, and preferences have become more heterogeneous from one region to another.
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In December, the White House published its National Security Strategy report, confirming clear diplomatic priorities focused on the entire American continent. The current American leadership sees maintaining US control over its majority as a necessary condition for its security. A basic application of the Monroe Doctrine.
In its name, we have seen for several months how Washington operates. From substantial support for Argentine President Javier Milei to the coup in Venezuela and support for the newly elected president of Chile, the White House is marking its territory. And its gaze is directed both towards the South and the North.
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In his memoirs, Raymond Aron refers to his opposition to Valéry Giscard d’Estaing when the latter was President of the French Republic: “Giscard’s tragedy is that he doesn’t know that history is tragic.” For Raymond Aron, history is irrational; human passions, ideologies, and power struggles do not disappear before simple reason. The tragedy of history also stems from its unpredictability and the role of chance.
Aron emphasizes that politics is first and foremost a power struggle.
Reflecting on what awaits us this year, and in the years to come, we can say: History is not deterministic. Everything is possible, including the questioning of international law and economic relations.
We don’t think too much on our own: thanks to Géraldine Amiel for our discussions.