The price of oil has fallen below $100. Gasoline prices will decrease, and social tensions will ease. This is the immediate impact of the ceasefire. The risk of escalating inflation could thus be averted, and the ECB could postpone a potential interest rate hike.
The analysis is more complex.
First, because the 15-point plan presented by Washington proposed placing Tehran under supervision, thereby depriving it of its military, economic, and regional influence. In the Iranian plan leading to the ceasefire, Iran becomes the country around which the political balance of the Middle East must be rebuilt.
On this plan of Tehran, there are some very striking points of rupture.
1- The withdrawal of American military forces from the region. For a long time, the Gulf countries have delegated the management of their security to the United States. This management did not live up to expectations during the conflict, and a review of this issue was anticipated by all the countries concerned.
The Iranian proposal goes much further, leaving the field open for a political realignment of the region without the United States. Historically, the resulting power dynamic, which will include Israel, is a potential source of instability because the objectives are not aligned. This could create a political advantage based on oil prices.
2- Iran wants to control the Strait of Hormuz. This would transform it from an international public good into a monetizable regional strategic asset. This changes the market balance for all products passing through the strait. It also presents an opportunity for many countries around the world to monetize and control straits. This represents a radical shift in the dynamics of global trade.
3- Iran wants all sanctions lifted and assets frozen due to international sanctions returned to Iran. The country would rejoin the international community without any challenge to its political regime.
4- On the nuclear issue, the American and Iranian positions are diametrically opposed. This was the starting point for the American intervention. Iran wants to be able to continue enriching uranium. However, the White House accepted this point, considering the Iranian plan a credible negotiable basis.
The ceasefire is welcome because it will allow for better flow of goods, a reduction in immediate economic risks and a rapid reduction in international tensions.
It will not allow a return to the previous situation given the damaged gas and refining infrastructure, the reconstruction of which will take time.
The negotiations that are about to begin cannot be resolved in 15 days, given the opposing viewpoints from the outset. The instability of the Middle East therefore remains a major source of uncertainty, even if the victory claimed by Washington is primarily aimed at domestic interests.
