The Shift of History – Part 2
Thucydide and Fernand Braudel allow us to understand the movements, Kindleberger is more in the analysis of the dynamics which are stalling. For Thucydide, Sparta must enter into conflict with…
Philippe Waechter's blog
Lowering tariffs between the US and China
Chinese and Americans have partially buried the war axe on tariffs. The 145% rate on Chinese products entering the US is lowered to 30% and the 125% rate for US…
The Shift of History – Part 1
World history is generally shaped by a leading country. This has been the case since World War II with the United States and earlier with Great Britain. This hegemon provides…
The US-UK trade deal is primarily political
The trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom was announced as the event. British goods entering the United States will be subject to a 10% tariff, as…
Oil prices fall
The price of oil is around $60 a barrel, a drop of just over 20% compared to the 2024 average. There are three dimensions to understanding the trend of oil…
The nagging problem of public finances in France
The IMF is skeptical about the French ability to control their public finances. According to April projections, the public deficit would remain close to 6% of GDP until 2030. This…
International trade and the future of the world
Increased trade is a major source of improved economic activity and income. This point was demonstrated by classical economists, then extended to international trade. While the theories have been refined,…
Trump is not yet Mitterrand
In an April 23 editorial, the Wall Street Journal editorial team spoke of a Mitterrand moment in Washington. This may seem mysterious at first glance, since Donald Trump is more…