Distortions on the US yield curve will force the Fed to reduce its rate at least one more time
All the US rates are down, reaching unprecedented levels. Last Tuesday, the 10y rate dropped below 1% for the first time at least since WWII. Tonight it was at 0.75%. The 30y rate is also at its lowest level ever. It is now close to the top of the fed fund range which is set at 1.25%
My interpretation of the Fed’s move last Tuesday was the consequence that all the US yield curve was below the Fed’s benchmark rate. It creates distortions. The Fed’s move was just a normalization. Looking at the current yield curve, we can have the perception that the Fed will have to do it again (50bp again)Will the central bank be able to wait until its next meeting (March 17-18)?
The other question is the level of the 10y rate when it will stabilize? Will it be lower than today? Will it be in negative territory? This will depend on the duration of the epidemic and therefore on the duration of the global recession. Clearly the epidemic implies a new paradigm for the US economy and the world.