Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • Climate
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 1 min

Euro Area – Inflation rate at 2% but the ECB will not move

  • 2 March 2017
  • Philippe Waechter
  • inflation rate
  • Monetary Policy
  • Oil Price
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

The inflation rate was at 2% in February after 1.8% in January. It’s the highest record since January 2013. The core inflation is stable at 0.9%. It means that energy is the main driver for the higher inflation rate.
The first graph shows that the core inflation rate is stable since 2014 and the volatility of the inflation rate is associated with the oil price yearly change.
ea-2017-feb-inflation
The oil price effect has started to diminish. The second graph shows the consistency between the yearly change in oil price (blue) and the energy contribution to the inflation rate (purple). We see that the oil price change has peaked in January and will follow the red line which shows the oil price yearly change when the oil price is at 55USD and the exchange rate at 1.06.(the last point is June 2017)
The oil price impact will be transitory and the energy contribution will start decreasing in April probably as there is persistence and delay between the oil price and contribution.
In other words, after the current peak, the inflation rate will converge to the core inflation rate (circa 1%).
This temporary effect of oil price on inflation is a strong incentive for the ECB to keep its monetary policy stance unchanged.
ea-2017-february-oilpricecontrib

Related Topics
  • inflation rate
  • Monetary Policy
  • Oil Price
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox


Loading

Le magazine d’experts d’Ostrum

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
  • Cookie Policy (EU)
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2025
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.

Manage Cookie Consent
We use cookies to optimize our website and our service.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Manage options Manage services Manage {vendor_count} vendors Read more about these purposes
View preferences
{title} {title} {title}