The Shift of History – Part 4
For Kindleberger, financial dynamics are not inherently stable. It requires a leader, a hegemon, who, through their actions, guarantees it, giving it the characteristics of a global public good. All…
Philippe Waechter's blog
The Shift of History – Part 3
The current architecture of the global economy owes much to the actions of central banks. Since the early 1980s, with the progressive financialization of the global economy, they have taken…
The Shift of History – Part 2
Thucydide and Fernand Braudel allow us to understand the movements, Kindleberger is more in the analysis of the dynamics which are stalling. For Thucydide, Sparta must enter into conflict with…
The Shift of History – Part 1
World history is generally shaped by a leading country. This has been the case since World War II with the United States and earlier with Great Britain. This hegemon provides…
International trade and the future of the world
Increased trade is a major source of improved economic activity and income. This point was demonstrated by classical economists, then extended to international trade. While the theories have been refined,…
Trump is not yet Mitterrand
In an April 23 editorial, the Wall Street Journal editorial team spoke of a Mitterrand moment in Washington. This may seem mysterious at first glance, since Donald Trump is more…
Three scenarios for tomorrow’s economy
After 100 days in the White House, the contours of Donald Trump’s policy are easier to discern. We can better see the key elements around which the presidential project is…
The global economy with Donald Trump in the White House
The election of Donald Trump marked a profound rupture, redefining global economic balances.Its protectionist policy, inspired by the McKinley era, weakens supply chains and increases international tensions, particularly with China…