Will the dollar depreciate?
The dollar is structurally overvalued given its external deficit. In any economy, such a deficit would have resulted in a sharp and lasting depreciation of its currency. This is not…
Philippe Waechter's blog
Not all of them died, but all of them were sick
The big day has arrived. Donald Trump has imposed exorbitant tariffs on the rest of the world.The basic rate will be 10% for all products entering the United States, but…
US tariffs: destabilizing and inflationary
The implementation of 25% tariffs at the US borders will be announced on April 2. The Trump administration’s goal is twofold:1- Collect revenue with the ultimate objective of replacing income…
Consumers at the heart of the risk of recession in the United States
Recession fears are growing in the United States as the economy trended robustly toward the end of Joe Biden’s term. This shift in outlook is becoming increasingly significant. About ten…
The end of the American world in 2030?
The American 20th century ended in 2030. After an imposing and long domination since the post-Second World War, the American economy is developing a significant comparative advantage in technology, mainly…
A US Sovereign Wealth Fund – A challenge to democracy
Donald Trump proposed Monday the creation of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund. The idea may seem appealing when you look at the sovereign wealth funds in Norway, China, Singapore and…
Trump and the climate
The year 2024 was the warmest on record. The average global temperature was 1.6C above the pre-industrial average.This is the moment Donald Trump has chosen to pull the United States…
Donald Trump takes office on January 20
Post-World War II institutions created rules for the functioning of global society in order to generate a form of coherence in the face of complex situations. The half-century that had…