Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • Climate
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 2 min

Just a remark on Chinese External Trade

  • 9 June 2014
  • Philippe Waechter
  • Exports
  • Imports
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

In May, the Chinese external trade balance was back to large surplus at USD 35.9bn. The rise in exports (+7% year on year) may be a good indication on world trade momentum. But the question on immediate outlook is not on exports but on imports. Chinese imports continue to shrink. This reflects a weak internal demand and a very limited impulse from China to the rest of the world, notably emerging and commodity producers’ countries.
To see the specificity of the current period, I’ve looked at imports and exports 3 month change from 20114 to 2014.
The first chart is referring to intra-annual profiles for exports from 2004 to 2014. We see that all years’ profiles from 2004 to 2014 are comparable. We just notice 2008 and 2009 which have very specific profile due to the global trade collapse (see her for details http://bit.ly/WorldTradeCollapse )
2014 is on the bottom range of the comparison. The momentum remains low but the profile is not too different with a recovery during spring.
China-2014-May-Exp-Comp
The second chart is referring to imports. Again, profiles are comparable with the exception of 2008 and 2009. But we could also say: with the exception of 2014 also. Its profile is well below previous years and there is no rebound in spring. This reflects a low internal demand dynamics. This can be seen with other data : investment dynamics is reduced this year as is the momentum of the industrial production index.
The question: is this weakness the consequence of the new  Chinese growth model centered on internal but with a re-allocation of resources in the short run? Or is it the consequences of a debt-constrained economy?
If it is due to a new allocation of resources we expect that the current weakness will probably be mild and temporary. If it is due to too much debt, this can imply a break in the outlook and a negative shock on the world economy. The IMF thinks that the debt issue is not as risky as mentioned above (see here http://bit.ly/Dette-Chine )

In the short-run, the lower momentum in Chinese imports is a drag to world trade and to world GDP growth. That’s not good news.
China-2014-May-Imp-Comp

Related Topics
  • Exports
  • Imports
On the same topic
  • 4 min

Italy, the Belt and Road program, and China – My weekly column

  • 2 April 2019
  • China

Philippe Waechter

Italy’s moves to sign a deal with China and get involved in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are highly significant as Italy is the first of the European Union’s…
  • Belt and Road Initiative
  • Trieste
READ
  • 1 min

Can a China / USA Agreement be credible?

  • 21 February 2019
  • China

Philippe Waechter

Financial markets strongly value the possibility of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Such a situation would make it possible to reduce the constraints on global trade…
  • Business Cycle
  • Technological Leadership
  • World Trade
READ
  • 9 min

The inevitable Chinese slowdown – My weekly column

  • 29 January 2019
  • China

Philippe Waechter

This post is available in pdf format My Weekly Column – January 28th Growth in China slowed again in 2018, with an average of 6.6% across the year vs. 6.9%…
  • Investment
  • Structural Adjustments
READ
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox


Loading
ABOUT PHILIPPE WAECHTER

Ostrum's expert magazine

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
  • Cookie Policy (EU)
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2022
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.

Manage Cookie Consent
We use cookies to optimize our website and our service.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Manage options Manage services Manage vendors Read more about these purposes
View preferences
{title} {title} {title}