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  • 1 min

France is late to take the bandwagon of the recovery: in 2 charts

  • 10 June 2014
  • Philippe Waechter
  • Economic Outlook
  • Industrial Production
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The first chart compares industrial production’s profiles in Europe. It shows the main Euro Area countries plus the United Kingdom. With the exception of Italy for which economic outlook is still problematic, we see a real recovery in Germany, in the United Kingdom and in Spain even if for this latter the level of activity is still very low. The French index is lagging and doesn’t seem to participate to the same momentum.

The 0.3% seen in April for the industrial and the manufacturing indices doesn’t change the picture. The puzzling issue is that in June 2013, the UK and French levels were the same. Now, in April, the gap is more than 3%.
EA-2014-April-ipi-compSurveys on the French industrial sector do not change the outlook. The second chart shows 6 month change of the manufacturing sector index and the New Orders to Inventories ratio calculated from the Markit survey. Series’ profiles are consistent. But with the last points there is no improvement to come. We have the same picture using the INSEE survey on industry. The orders’ level is well below its historical average. There is no strong impulse on the manufacturing sector.

This puts at risk the 1% GDP growth forecast of the French government. My expectations are close to 0.6-0.7%
France-en-2014-April-manuf-ratio

Related Topics
  • Economic Outlook
  • Industrial Production
On the same topic
  • 3 min

From Yesterday to Today – November 3 – France, its Public Deficit and the fragility of the Euro Area

  • 4 November 2020
  • France

Philippe Waechter

The IMF suggests that France should revive its economy but also should plan a strategy to rebalance its public finances as soon as activity picks up. Its fear is a…
  • Euro Area
  • Public Finance Sustainability
  • Sovereign Debt Crisis
  • Structural Deficit
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  • 3 min

From Yesterday to Today – October 30 – Spectacular rebound in growth while awaiting containment

  • 30 October 2020
  • Euro Area

Philippe Waechter

The GDP in France and in the Eurozone countries has clearly improved over the three Summer months. Nevertheless, the level of activity remains a little below 4% of the 2019…
  • GDP Growth
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  • 3 min

From Yesterday to Today – October 29 – What impact would the November lockdown have on activity in France?

  • 29 October 2020
  • France

Philippe Waechter

With a conservative assumption on the impact of containment of -6% in the last quarter, GDP would contract -10.8% in 2020 and grow by + 3.5% in 2021. Convergence towards 2019 GDP would take place around 2026/2027
  • Covid-19 Impact on Growth
  • Lockdown in France
  • Social Dynamics
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