Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • Climate
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 1 min

Economic activity in Asia – Stronger momentum in June

  • 1 July 2014
  • Philippe Waechter
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
  • PMI Surveys
  • South Korea
  • Taïwan
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

The first chart below shows an upward trend for most PMI indices in Asia. A divergent dynamics can be seen in South Korea. It reflects a weak internal demand. Flows of orders decreased more rapidly than new export orders’ flows.
We notice

  • In Taiwan, the improvement of the index reflects a strong recovery in export orders’ flows
  • In Japan there is a rebound after the negative impact of the VAT rate hike. The index dropped rapidly below the threshold of 50 in April before recovering. The impact is temporary according to companies’ survey. But be attentive: the real retail sales index was still trending downward in May. There is persistence on consumer side. This scenario of recovery in summer was already seen in 1997 (last VAT rate hike). But as demand was weak, the industrial production index plunged from fall onward.
  • In India the index is stable but flows from orders’ export have just compensated a reduction in internal demand.
  • The two Chinese indices are up, above the 50 threshold. This reflects the less constraining economic policies
  • South Korea diverge and is the only one now below 50. Internal demand lacks of momentum.

asia-2014-june-pmi-countriesThe second chart is the New Orders to Inventories ratio. There are no surprises. In South Korea the index is above one as Inventories dropped dramatically in June, more than New Orders’ drop.
asia-2014-june-ratioThis upward trend of PMI indices is positive and shows that Asia is no more a drag to the world business cycle.That’s what is important as the Euro Area falters.

Related Topics
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
  • PMI Surveys
  • South Korea
  • Taïwan
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox


Loading
ABOUT PHILIPPE WAECHTER

Le magazine d’experts d’Ostrum

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
  • Cookie Policy (EU)
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2023
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.

Manage Cookie Consent
We use cookies to optimize our website and our service.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Manage options Manage services Manage vendors Read more about these purposes
View preferences
{title} {title} {title}