Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 1 min

Five graphs on the ISM: Ouch it's ugly

  • 1 September 2016
  • Philippe Waechter
  • Federal Reserve
  • ISM
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

The synthetic index of the ISM survey in the manufacturing sector crashed in August. It is again below the 50 threshold. We can imagine that the recent improvement was temporary as the index was below 50 from October 2015 to February 2016. The August 2016 level is way below its historical average.
The drop in the ISM index reflects mainly the fragility of the domestic market as the new export orders index is stable above 50. This drop may be temporary but it shows that the American economic is not able to rebound strongly and permanently. That’s worrisome
I’m not sure that the US economy is close to the targets defined by the Federal Reserve and  mentioned recently by Janet Yellen and Stan Fisher. We will still have to wait before the Fed hikes its main rate if it does it.
usa-2016-aout-ismmanuf
The retreat of the ISM index comes from every component of the index. But New orders and production were the main contributors by far.
us-2016-aout-ism-manuf-contrib.png
The slower momentum of the New Orders index doesn’t come from a negative external shock as the New Export Orders index is stable
usa-2016-aout-ismcomaexport.png
That’s the reason why the downward shift of the New Orders to Inventories ratio is an issue. It shows that the domestic momentum is low. It could be problematic as the two series below are consistent and the lower ratio could be a negative shock on the GDP
usa-2016-aout-ism ratio.png
No pressures on prices
usa-2016-aout-ismprix.png

Related Topics
  • Federal Reserve
  • ISM
On the same topic
  • 2 min

The Euro zone slows sharply in March

  • 1 April 2019
  • Actus & Chroniques

Philippe Waechter

The publication March’s Markit indices confirms the downward pressure on activity in the manufacturing sector. The leading indices published for the Euro zone, Germany and France, on March 22, have…
  • Manufacturing Sector
  • Markit
READ
  • 1 min

The shock in the manufacturing sector in Germany: IFO vs Markit

  • 25 March 2019
  • Actus & Chroniques

Philippe Waechter

The modest rebound in the IFO index in March is sometimes interpreted as the counterpoint to the drop of the Markit index released last Friday.There is indeed an opposition in…
  • IFO
  • Manufacturing Sector
  • Markit
READ
  • 1 min

Industrial production shrinks in Euro zone

  • 13 February 2019
  • Actus & Chroniques

Philippe Waechter

With the decline of -0.9% in December, the industrial production of the Euro zone fell by -5.3% over the last quarter (annualized rate). and -2.1% over one year. The slowdown…
  • Euro Area
  • Industrial Production
READ
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox

Loading
ABOUT PHILIPPE WAECHTER

Ostrum's expert magazine

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2019
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.