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  • 2 min

British economy falls behind since referendum

  • 14 August 2017
  • Philippe Waechter
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The comparison of industrial activity in the European economy is very instructive when we consider the period after the British referendum on Brexit.
Despite the acceleration of world trade, British industrial production is lagging behind the various countries of the Eurozone. This is shown in the graph below.
The profile of industrial activity in Italy flies across all the major European countries, while the United Kingdom is clearly lagging behind, especially since the beginning of 2017. The gap is significant with the index of the euro zone as well as with France, Germany and Spain.

Europe-june2017-ipiafterrefonBrexit
The observation is similar when looking at manufacturing output. The British have stopped working since March, while other European countries continue to make progress (Italy no longer produces an index of manufacturing output).
Europe-june2017-mpiafterrefonBrexit
The economy of the United Kingdom, therefore, does not benefit frankly from the resumption of world trade and the fall of its currency. This is what the graph below suggests. The United Kingdom’s non-oil exports are not doing better than world trade, despite a fall in the currency. The euro zone, on the other hand, is one of the sources of the acceleration of world trade since the end of 2016.
I was worried about how the British economy would look because of the depletion of domestic demand (see here), and I am even more concerned about this lack of rebound in the industrial production.
The British who saw the rupture with the European Union as a source of improvement for the United Kingdom competitiveness and an ability to conquer the world have not yet convinced the rest of the world of the benefits of Brexit.
uk-2017-july-effexchrate&trade

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