These two graphs this morning in the “Daily Shot” of the Wall Street Journal show the lower world trade momentum. All the indicators converge to a lower dynamics. With US tariffs and retaliation the risk is an extended downward trend.
The virtuous loop seen in 2017 between trade and activity had an impulse coming from very accommodative monetary policies all around the world. There is no new central bankers’ impulse. It is even the contrary. Investors now expect that the next trend will be on the tighter side after the Fed.
Moreover the uncertainty associated with the lower global economic mood (from non cooperative strategies from the US, UK, Italy and retaliation measures) reduces the economic horizon and therefore the will to invest from corporate companies.
In other words, after a surge in 2017 coming from central banks’ impulse, there is a downside adjustment which is amplified by non cooperative behavior from many governments.
The main risk at the global level is a rapid growth slowdown. It could be sooner than later.
On the same topic
Chinese Exports: an extended slowdown
The growth of the Chinese economy is constrained by the global economic cycle and can not find a relay through its internal demand.China will have to negotiate with the USA…
What to expect this week ? December 2 to 8, 2019
Christine Lagarde at the European Parliament on December the 2nd. Markit and ISM surveys, German industrial orders, the Chinese external trade and US employment. The COP 25 in Spain. Highlights…
Governments against the euro zone
The ECB monetary policy became frankly accommodating only because Draghi had the perception that governments and the Commission would never let go on fiscal policy.
Will Christine Lagarde fall into the same trap as Draghi?
Will Christine Lagarde fall into the same trap as Draghi?