World trade figures issued by the Dutch institute CPB have been published for the month of August.
Year-on-year, the improvement observed that has started in June has been extended to August with an increase of 3.8%. This figure is still limited as before the 2008 crisis, average trade growth was 7% per year.
On the graph, however, there is a marked divergence between the pace of trade and the export order indices of the US, Japan and the Euro zone. Usually these two indicators have consistent profiles. World trade is up while the average of these 3 Markit indices continues to deteriorate. We already noted this point a month ago but it is confirmed clearly.
The rebound in trade is mainly seen in emerging countries, particularly in Asia, but Latam and Central Europe are also on the rise. On the other hand, the situation remains weak on developed countries’ side. The trend is stable and is penalized by the pace of the USA and Japan for which the trade retreats over 3 months. The US which has increased tariffs is paying a high price for this policy. Asia, the US target, is doing well. That’s amazing.
Annex
