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  • 1 min

The flattening of the yield curve and the possibility of a recession in the US.

  • 5 December 2018
  • Philippe Waechter
  • Monetary Policy
  • Récession
  • US
  • Yield Curve
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First step the 5yr-2yr spread is now null before being negative with the Fed tightening. Then the 10yr-2yr will flatten before being negative for the same reason. This has always been a signal of recession. This time is not different and 2020 can be anticipated for it.
spread5-2-us-en.png
The two curves have the same pattern even if levels are different. They provide the same message for 2020.
spread5-2er10-2USA-en.png

Related Topics
  • Monetary Policy
  • Récession
  • US
  • Yield Curve
On the same topic
  • 1 min

Reflections on pensions in France

  • 13 January 2020
  • France

Philippe Waechter

Discussions in France about retirement often give the impression that pensions have to correct a large part of the inequalities of the working period.They suggest an at least partial dissociation…
  • Labor Market
  • Retirement
READ
  • 2 min

A robust French Economy despite the strike

  • 17 December 2019
  • France

Philippe Waechter

The Markit survey for France does not suggest in December an inflection that can be linked to the social movement. The economy’s capacity to adapt is stronger than we imagine…
  • Business Cycle
  • Labor Market
  • Markit Survey
READ
  • 3 min

Brexit will take place on January 31

  • 13 December 2019
  • International

Philippe Waechter

The British vote validates the choice of Brexit and the exit from the European Union on January 31, 2020. Boris Johnson is free to define his strategy. Boris Johnson’s huge…
  • Boris Johnson
  • Brexit
  • UK General Elections
  • United Kingdom
READ
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