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  • 1 min

Deep drop in world trade in December

  • 25 February 2019
  • Philippe Waechter
  • Growth
  • Negative Shock
  • World Trade
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World trade is slowing down sharply. In the last quarter of 2018 compared to the last quarter of 2017, trade is now up only 1.5% against 3.9% in October. The adjustment is not finished if we follow the Markit indicator of export orders in the USA, Japan and the Eurozone.

Asia is the region that contributes the most to this slowdown. Its 3-month contribution to global import growth was at + 4.8% in September and dropped to -5.3% in December. This persistent shock on trade is the result of the choices made in the White House. The brutality of the movement explains the change in outlook on activity since last summer but also the Fed’s new view on its monetary policy.

Related Topics
  • Growth
  • Negative Shock
  • World Trade
On the same topic
  • 1 min

Reflections on pensions in France

  • 13 January 2020
  • France

Philippe Waechter

Discussions in France about retirement often give the impression that pensions have to correct a large part of the inequalities of the working period.They suggest an at least partial dissociation…
  • Labor Market
  • Retirement
READ
  • 2 min

A robust French Economy despite the strike

  • 17 December 2019
  • France

Philippe Waechter

The Markit survey for France does not suggest in December an inflection that can be linked to the social movement. The economy’s capacity to adapt is stronger than we imagine…
  • Business Cycle
  • Labor Market
  • Markit Survey
READ
  • 3 min

Brexit will take place on January 31

  • 13 December 2019
  • International

Philippe Waechter

The British vote validates the choice of Brexit and the exit from the European Union on January 31, 2020. Boris Johnson is free to define his strategy. Boris Johnson’s huge…
  • Boris Johnson
  • Brexit
  • UK General Elections
  • United Kingdom
READ
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