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  • 1 min

What to expect next week ? (June 17 – June 21, 2019)

  • 17 June 2019
  • Philippe Waechter
  • Federal Reserve
  • Gerùany
  • Markit Survey
  • USA
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Highlights

  • The main focus this week will be the Fed’s meeting. I don’t expect a announcement for a rapid drop in the Fed’s rate.
  • The Fed must show its independence when macro data are still robust while the inflation rate remains low.
  • The inversion of the yield curve will continue and I expect a drop in the Fed’s rate next fall as macro data will be weaker.
  • The US housing market is key in the short term dynamics. Existing home sales is a proxy for a wealth effect on this market. Its recent downside trend may be consistent with a slower consumption pace on consumers’ side
  • Flash estimates of the Markit survey will highlight the depth of the US slowdown in the manufacturing sector and the profile of New Export Orders which are consistent with the world trade momentum
  • The ZEW and the Markit survey for June in Germany will reflect the impact of the world trade slowdown. It has already been important on exports. More may be expected.

The document can be found here NextWeek-June17-June21-2019

Related Topics
  • Federal Reserve
  • Gerùany
  • Markit Survey
  • USA
On the same topic
  • 3 min

From Today to Tomorrow – November 19 – Gold, the US real rate and German exports

  • 19 November 2020
  • International

Philippe Waechter

The rise in the price of gold was halted by improving prospects for the US economy and society. Last summer price of $ 2000 was probably excessive. But this is…
  • German Exports
  • Gold Price
  • Real US Interest Rate
READ
  • 3 min

From Yesterday to Today – October 20 – China and the rest of the world

  • 20 October 2020
  • International

Philippe Waechter

The Chinese economy is normalizing. The health alert phase has passed and growth is resuming. It is rather self-centered and is no longer a source of strong impetus for the…
  • China
  • Chinese Growth
  • Growth Normalization
READ
  • 4 min

Europe must choose its philosophy

  • 25 May 2020
  • International

Philippe Waechter

The European Commission will have to choose between the Franco / German plan and the proposal of “frugal four”. The choice will shape the trajectory of Europe for the years…
  • "Frugal Four" Countries
  • European Commission
  • European Union
  • Franco/German Proposal
READ
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