- The main focus this week will be the Fed’s meeting. I don’t expect a announcement for a rapid drop in the Fed’s rate.
- The Fed must show its independence when macro data are still robust while the inflation rate remains low.
- The inversion of the yield curve will continue and I expect a drop in the Fed’s rate next fall as macro data will be weaker.
- The US housing market is key in the short term dynamics. Existing home sales is a proxy for a wealth effect on this market. Its recent downside trend may be consistent with a slower consumption pace on consumers’ side
- Flash estimates of the Markit survey will highlight the depth of the US slowdown in the manufacturing sector and the profile of New Export Orders which are consistent with the world trade momentum
- The ZEW and the Markit survey for June in Germany will reflect the impact of the world trade slowdown. It has already been important on exports. More may be expected.
The document can be found here NextWeek-June17-June21-2019