The risk of recession is increasing in #Germany. The figures for industrial production (-7.5% in Q2 at annual rate (see here)) set the context for the GDP figure to be released tomorrow morning. The #ZEW survey for August suggests that the downturn will continue #Recession

On the same topic
- 2 min
The German saving rate doesn’t depend on the ECB interest rates
There is a lot of talks about the German savings rate, which is supposed to have increased recently in response to the drop in interest rates, notably the ECB rates.…
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Recession in Germany
German production fell -1.8% in June over one month (excluding construction). It has fallen in 5 of the last 6 quarters and in Q2 the decline is -7.5% annualized rate.…
- 1 min
The ECB weak capacity to forecast
A few months ago the ECB suggested a rate hike in the fall of 2019. It will finally be a rate cut in September. What is the forecast capacity of…